The Looming Copper “Supply Crunch” May Have Only Just Begun

The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), titled "2025 Critical Mineral Outlook," delivers a highly alarming signal. Copper, an irreplaceable core metal in the energy transition, is quietly approaching the edge of a "systemic shortage." It's not that it "might" cause problems, but it is "very likely" to become a key constraint in the development of clean energy in the 2030s.

The report points out that under the current established policies of various countries, global copper demand will double by 2035, while supply may face a deficit of up to 30%. This is a staggering figure because it is not a short-term supply and demand imbalance due to price fluctuations but a structural crisis resulting from multiple factors such as declining resource grades, prolonged project cycles, and weak investment willingness.

It is noteworthy that, unlike emerging metals such as lithium and cobalt, copper is already a mature global market. However, it is precisely for this reason that it is harder to catch up through "rapid expansion." From the perspective of project investment, the development of a large copper mine often takes more than 15 years, which means that hesitating today will result in paying for the gap ten years later.

More complexly, there is a "misalignment" in the current global layout of copper mining and refining. Mineral resources are concentrated in South America, while smelting and processing capacities are highly concentrated in China. This geographic disconnection between upstream and midstream means that any disturbance in a single link (such as strikes, policy tightening, extreme weather) could trigger a chain reaction in the global chain. The water resource risks of Chilean and Peruvian copper mines in 2024 are a portent of this.

The IEA report is not alarmist but a warning: Green energy is not "idealism"; it is a practical battle based on metals. Wind power, photovoltaics, power grids, and electric vehicles, none can function without copper, and copper is becoming the "common bottleneck" for all these.

As a major global consumer of copper and also a leading player in copper refining, China cannot ignore its vulnerability and initiative in this issue. In the future, we will need not only resource assurance but also forward-looking policies, a global layout, and attention to "urban minerals" and recycled copper resources.

Energy security has never been as tightly bound to mineral resources as it is today. And copper might just be the next resource truly in need of "strategic reserves."

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