The Copper Market Under the Blade of Trump's Tariffs: A Life-and-Death Struggle in the Global Supply Chain

When the Trump administration brandished the tariff rod at copper metal, this lifeblood of industrial processes that supports the global economy was experiencing an unprecedented race against time. Copper prices have made a breathtaking leap from $8,105 per ton to $9,000 per ton, not only reflecting the fragile nerves of the global trade system but also exposing the deep fissures in the economic game between China and the United States. This copper market storm triggered by tariffs is reshaping the global supply chain map and pushing Chinese manufacturing to a strategic decision-making crossroads.

Supply Chain Fission: The Grand Migration of Global Copper Flows

Tariff expectations act like an invisible magnetic field, stirring the flow of global copper metal. CME inventory surged by 120% to 119,772 short tons, the loading arms at the Baltimore warehouse roared back to life after a decade of silence, while LME inventory continued to bleed out for nine months. The collapse of China's market inventory is equally alarming: SHFE inventory shrank by 32% from its peak, and the Yangshan copper premium soared by 150%, revealing the harsh reality of tight supply.

Behind this "great migration" of copper lies a strategic breakout by Chinese smelters. The startling doubling of refined copper exports to 50,000 tons in January-February is, in fact, a risk-averse strategy voted with their feet by companies. But the cost of this export frenzy is the continuous rise in domestic copper prices, with cable companies and new energy manufacturers bearing the excruciating pain of cost pass-throughs.

Macro-Micro Tearing: The Schizophrenia of the Copper Market

The copper market is experiencing an absurd dual paradox: On a macro level, the cloudy outlook under a trade war leads to worsening global economic expectations, which should theoretically contract demand for copper, known as the "Doctor of Economics"; On a micro level, tariff expectations stimulate cross-border arbitrage in copper metal, pushing up short-term prices. This tearing effect places copper prices under the dual pressures of recession expectations and inventory transfer support, forming a dangerous balance.

The contradictions in the Chinese market are particularly sharp. The soaring Shanghai copper premium indicates tight supply, but smelters are alleviating inventory pressures through surging exports. This self-canceling closed loop is actually a microcosm of global economic imbalance. As the energy transition requires 40% of copper consumption, the safety valve of the supply chain has quietly loosened.

Future Copper Landscape: Reconstructing Order in the Eye of the Storm

With Trump's tariff sword hanging in suspense, the copper market remains shrouded in policy fog. If Section 232 is implemented, the cost of American manufacturing will swallow up the demand dividend; if exemptions expand, short-term prices may catch a breath, but the Damoclean sword of demand contraction still hangs high. China needs to accelerate its strategic breakout: speeding up copper mine development in Congo and Australia, breakthroughs in recycling copper technology are imminent, while also being wary of the transmission pressure from PPI to CPI.

The structural contradictions in global copper demand are becoming prominent: The new energy wave requires an annual increase of 3 million tons, but the trade war is making investment decisions become indecisive. Technological progress becomes the key variable, and breakthroughs in efficient smelting and recycling technology may become the golden key to solving the dilemma of concentrate shortages.

As copper prices dance in the tariff storm, the global market is witnessing the end of an era — the free trade system is being torn apart by policy games. As the largest copper consumer, China urgently needs to build supply chain resilience under the dual circulation model, using technological innovation to hedge against external shocks. In this global game, copper metal is no longer just an industrial raw material but a strategic weight in great power competition. Each fluctuation in its price curve is knocking at the pulse of the global economy.

Jintian Copper produces copper strips, copper rods, copper wires, copper plates, copper tubes, copper bars, magnet wires, and magnetic steel. For inquiries, please call: 0574-83005999.